Political Pulse

At the first of this year’s Political Junkies luncheons in Oklahoma City, sponsored by the Oklahoma Political Communications Center, Pat McFerron of CMA Strategies predicted that Republicans will have a good year in the elections of 2010 because of President Barack Obama. McFerron, who is a frequent guest on OETA’s award-winning election coverage, said Obama will likely be a drag on the ticket for Democrats, giving Republicans the opportunity to score big in statewide races.

McFerron was joined on the panel by political consultants Neva Hill and Pat Hall and former Vice-Chair of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, Ben Odom. Among the comments made while handicapping next year’s races:

McFerron said President Obama’s approval numbers in Oklahoma, never strong, are slipping. Hall pointed out they will be even lower after Republicans attack Obama with what he called a “scorched earth” campaign, and this will hurt Democratic candidates.

Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett may not run for 5th District Congress, opting instead to run for re-election as Mayor. The outcome of the Maps 3 vote will likely determine his political future.

Outgoing Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor will be a force in whatever race she enters if she chooses to seek another office. Lieutenant Governor is the top one being mentioned, although she could cause problems for U.S. Rep. John Sullivan if she decided to throw her hat in the ring for his 1st District Congressional seat.

Although Norman City Attorney Jeff Bryant has shown some interest in running for the Republican nomination for Governor, he may instead wind up as a candidate for Attorney General. Several names are being discussed as possible candidates for attorney general (seat being vacated by Drew Edmondson, who is running for the Democratic nomination for Governor against Lt. Governor Jari Askins), but one who apparently is not interested, per McFerron, is former State Senator Scott Pruitt. There is some thought that current State Treasurer Scott Meacham may run for AG. One Republican who is running for the seat, Oklahoma City attorney Ryan Leonard, is reporting more than $150,000 raised in his latest FEC report.

Mary Fallin and Randy Brogdon may be the only Republicans in the Governor’s race. Pat Hall floated the idea of Frank Keating returning to the state (which he apparently plans to do) and running again for governor. McFerron confirmed Keating’s move, but shot down the gubernatorial bid for the 2-term Republican governor. Hill pointed out Brogdon may develop a solid following among the party’s most fervent conservatives, who can make a difference in party primaries.

Lloyd Fields can expect a spirited re-election challenge for Labor Commissioner, but Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland may have an easier time in 2010 than she did in 2006. Steve Burrage is running to hold onto his seat as Auditor and Inspector, with no challengers yet. Former State Senator Owen Laughlin of Woodward has formed an exploratory committee to consider a run for State Treasurer. Edmond Republican Janet Barresi has the leg up on her party’s nomination for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Incumbent State Superintendent Sandy Garrett has not indicated whether she intends to seek a sixth term.

McFerron and Hill think strong Republican candidates will emerge for the 5th District Congressional seat being vacated by Mary Fallin.

A crowded field running to replace Taylor as mayor of Tulsa may help the best-known and best-funded candidates, Democratic State Senator Tom Adelson and the man he defeated for state senate, Dewey Bartlett, Jr., son of the former Republican Governor and U.S. Senator, Dewey Bartlett. The primaries are winner-take-all, and name recognition may be a huge advantage.

Expect a hot race in House District 55, being vacated by Ryan McMullen (the Democrat is taking a job in the Obama administration). It may be difficult for a Democrat to win the seat, as western Oklahoma has been trending Republican in recent years. Several candidates have already announced their intentions to run. The primary is in September, the special election is set for Oct. 13.

Pat Hall pointed out that the political demographics of Oklahoma are changing, with the Republican Party becoming more powerful in rural and suburban areas, and Democrats seeing growth in urban areas.

As always, expect incumbents to be hard to beat.

Until next time,
Dick Pryor

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - State Rep. Rob Johnson says he plans to run
for the state Senate seat held by his term-limited father,
Republican Sen. Mike Johnson of Kingfisher.
Rob Johnson, also a Republican, made the announcement Tuesday.
The District 22 seat encompasses portions of Canadian, Kingfisher,
Logan and Oklahoma counties.
Johnson served four years in the Oklahoma House. He lost the
Republican nomination for the Corporation Commission to Dana Murphy
in 2008.
Johnson said that while in the House, he opposed wasteful
spending and helped pass the two largest tax cuts in Oklahoma
history.
He says he also authored lawsuit reform and other measures to
help small businesses grow and add jobs.
Johnson lives in Kingfisher with his wife Michelle and their two
daughters.

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Former Arkansas Gov. and Republican
presidential candidate Mike Huckabee says Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s
decision to resign is surprising - but he refuses to criticize her.
In Oklahoma City on Sunday Huckabee said Palin is still a strong
candidate for the White House in 2012. Huckabee is also considered
one of the contenders for the Republican presidential nomination in
2012.
Huckabee says he was “very surprised” by Palin’s decision but
that it could turn out to be the best move for her.
Huckabee also said he was stunned by South Carolina Gov. Mark
Sanford’s sex scandal and says Sanford probably is finished
politically.
Huckabee was in Oklahoma City to speak to high school students
participating in a debate program and to attend a fundraiser for
his political action committee.

TULSA, Okla. (AP) - U.S. Rep. John Sullivan is returning to
Washington after a one-month stay in a California treatment center
for alcohol addiction and says he plans to seek another term in
office.
Sullivan, R-Okla., told the Tulsa World’s Washington bureau his
surprise announcement in late May to seek treatment for his
drinking was not triggered by a single incident.
The 44-year-old Republican says he experienced “one of those
moments of just clarity” that people with addictions have.
The self-described alcoholic says he sought treatment because of
the impact his drinking was having on his family.
Sullivan says he made his decision to enter the Betty Ford
Center in California in the middle of the Memorial Day
congressional recess in late May.